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February Dinner Meeting
Creating Strategic Balance in the Credit Cycle
The recent flattening in the U.S. yield curve coupled with numerous other economic uncertainties has reignited the fear of recession for bank managements and investors. As a result, the industry focus has shifted from tax reform and upcoming growth toward the contemplation of the next downturn. As the Great Recession is now a decade in the past shouldn’t we all be battening down the hatches and preparing for the next storm? In contrast to the current financial market consensus, our analysis suggests that the next recession may be another 2 to 3 years off on the horizon. Given this much longer economic cycle we believe your bank has time to continue to pursue growth opportunities while ensuring your liquidity and capital positions are strong enough to withstand whatever stress test might eventually emerge.
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